Chena Ridge, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

703
FXAK69 PAFG 172236
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
136 PM AKST Fri Jan 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

West Coast Storminess continues through the weekend. The heaviest
snowfall is expected along south facing slopes of the Nulato
Hills, western Brooks Range, and south Seward Peninsula with an
additional foot or more expected. Temperatures rise through the
weekend for the Interior and North Slope.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Weather Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures warm now through the weekend as southerly flow and
  additional cloud cover moves over the region. High temperatures
  generally in the teens and 20s by Sunday.

- The Tanana Valley Jet is currently blowing with winds gusting
  through Delta Junction up to 40 mph and through Nenana up to 30
  mph. The jet is expected to last through the weekend with gusts
  at Delta Junction peaking near 50mph.

- Strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes through
  this weekend. The strongest winds will be Saturday with gusts up
  to 65mph possible. Winds weaken Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Heavy snowfall continues along the West Coast and parts of the
  Western Interior. The heaviest snow will fall on south facing
  slopes of the Nulato Hills, south Seward Peninsula, and western
  Brooks Range. These areas will see a foot or more of snowfall
  through the weekend.

- Strong easterly winds are currently flowing through the Norton
  sound and from the Kobuk Valley through the Kotzebue Sound with
  gusts up to 45 mph. These winds will shift southeasterly
  Saturday AM and weaken overnight Saturday into Sunday.

- Blizzard conditions are expected to continue for St Lawrence
  Island into this afternoon. Winds weaken and shift easterly this
  afternoon, but additional snow accumulations of up to 5 inches
  are possible through Sunday AM. Visibility restrictions may
  continue overnight as easterly winds transport blowable snow
  into Gambell and Savoonga from the ice pack.

- Snow shifts to snow/rain mix in the Y-K Delta today as
  temperatures increase. Rain or a rain/snow mix is expected to
  continue there until Sunday when conditions shift back to mostly
  snow. There is a chance that a rain snow mix reaches as far
  north of Nome Saturday afternoon.


North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Southerly flow over the Brooks Range will increase high
  temperatures to the mid 20s for the Arctic Plains and Arctic
  Coast Saturday and Sunday.

- The south slopes of the Western Brooks Range, north of the Kobuk
  Valley will see an additional foot of snow through the weekend.

- Point Hope will see snow showers through the weekend with
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. As winds shift southeasterly
  Saturday there may be periods of reduced visibility from blowing
  snow. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible through Sunday PM.

- Atigun Pass and Anaktuvuk Pass will see southerly winds up to 40
  mph this weekend. Periods of blowing snow are

Extended Forecast Days 4-8...

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue into next week.

- A low pressure system moving into Bristol Bay Tuesday night will
  bring light snow to much of the Interior by Thursday.

- A stronger low moves into the Bering Sea Thursday and towards
  the West Coast Friday. There is much uncertainty as to exactly
  where, when, and how strong this low will be, but it will likely
  be stronger than the Tuesday night to Thursday system.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...

A weakening 980 surface low about 100 miles west of St Matthew
Island is providing snow and easterly winds to the West Coast
today. A 977 surface low near Unalaska weakens as it moves north
overnight and joins with the St Matthew Low as a 985 low pressure
area near St Matthew Island. A shortwave feature rotating around
this low pressure area moves into the Chukchi sea and closes off
as a more distinct surface low Saturday night. This Chukchi Sea
low will shift the wind direction over the west coast to mostly
southeasterly and begin to pull the remainder of the energy of the
low pressure area further north.

A 988mb surface low moves into Bristol Bay early Sunday morning
and then to the YK Delta by Sunday afternoon. This will provide
additional precipitation to the West Coast through Sunday. Between
these lows dry air aloft will move across the west coast and
limit snow development Saturday evening from Nome south. Saturday
evening through Sunday morning will see the largest area of rain
or rain/snow mix due to the limited snow growth.

Sunday night a high pressure region in eastern Siberia shifts
east into the Bering Sea which will push the remnants of the west
coast lows to the north east and weaken them. As this moves to the
northeast much of the remaining moisture will fall as snow in the
southwestern Brooks Range with some managing to reach the North
Slope as light snow Monday.

A 990 low will move into Bristol Bay Tuesday and will bring snow
to much of the Interior through Thursday.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ847-849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ813-814-816-818-819.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ817.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821-824.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ808.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>803-811-816-817-850-853-854-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-805-851-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807-808.
     Gale Warning for PKZ809-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

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